College Basketball Card - Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Iowa State -8 vs. Cincinnati (-125, ESPN)

Iowa State's Curtis Jones celebrates after a basket.

This is a good spot to play against a Bearcats team that is coming off a big win in round 1 of the Big-12 tournament. They destroyed the Oklahoma State Cowboys 87-68, which if you follow me on X (@Sharp_Side_), you had them -6.5 for two units. I think everyone knows that Iowa State is a very good basketball team, however, I also think that most people will be taking the points with Cincinnati here at a very large +9.5 spread in some places.

The Cyclones haven’t exactly been a machine down the stretch. They have lost three of their last five games and failed to cover in two of them as well. They are coming off the destruction of Kansas State 73-57, but I think they have a good shot to have a similar performance today. Just take a look at this total and team total. The game is sitting at a very low 134.5, and the Bearcats team total is laughable.

They currently are set at just 62.5 for the entire game, and that comes after scoring 87 in their last game. To me, that often is a strong telling sign of what is to come. While many will back them getting so many points, I think we are looking at another blowout, but this time for the Cyclones.

I got this at -8 on ESPNBet for -125, which is pretty juicy. If you prefer, you can play them for -9 for -110, but I took the better number.

Butler ML vs. Providence (-125, BetRivers)

This is one ugly matchup, with both teams coming into the Big East tournament on long losing streaks. The Bulldogs have lost four of their last five games, and have also failed to cover in three straight. Meanwhile, Providence has lost five in a row and failed to cover in four of those games, with their last contest against Xavier being the lone cover of +12.5.

Butler has been horrendous on the road, with a 2-9 SU record away from home. I think there will be many people who see how terrible they are on the road, and back the Friars here as the higher seed. Most recreational bettors will bet on Providence simply because they are No. 8 and Butler is No. 9. The Bulldogs have two things going for them, and that is the fact they are 10-3 SU as a favorite and 7-5-1 ATS on the road despite their awful SU record.

I think there is a reason the books have them favored as the lower seed, so I'll back the Bulldogs on the ML at -125 at BetRivers. If you prefer the -1.5, you can get that for -110, but this figures to be a very close contest between two awful basketball teams.

Baylor -5 vs. Kansas State (-115, Bovada)

Two teams where the public might have different opinions about heading into the Big-12 tournament. Kansas State just defeated Arizona State in the first round, 71-66, and has won three of their last four games coming into this one. Things haven't been as rosy for the Bears, who have lost three of their last four games and have been atrocious at covering spreads, with just a 3-7 ATS over their last 10. That is going to push a lot of people into taking the points with the Wildcats here.

Kansas State has generally been very bad at winning games on the road, with a 3-9 SU record away from their house. However, once again, they have a 7-5 ATS road record. Their ability to cover spreads, especially as an underdog with an 11-5 ATS record getting points, will make them very appealing here for most with how bad the Bears have been at covering.

As usual, I'll fade that point of view. I feel like this will be a good spot for Baylor to come out and cover at -5, so I bet them at -115 on Bovada at that number. Most places are at -5.5, and that should be fine.

LSU at Mississippi State Under 146 (-110, BetRivers)

Instead of taking a side between two teams that have been struggling lately, I am going to take the under and fade them both. LSU has looked like a complete disaster, losing eight of their last 10 games while covering only four of those. The Tigers have been awful at covering spreads away from home, with a 4-7-1 ATS record and that gets even worse as a dog, with a 6-13-1 record.

However, Mississippi State doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either. They have lost four of their last five games, and are just 5-5 ATS in their last 10. The Bulldogs have been a true over team this season, going over the total in seven of their last 10 games, while the opposite is true of LSU, who are just 5-5.

This feels like a game where the Tigers are going to struggle to score, and I am no fan of the Bulldogs at -9.5 points, so I am taking the under here at 146 at -110 on BetRivers.

SMU -8 vs. Syracuse (-120, FanDuel)

This is another situation where I am backing the team as a big favorite that hasn't been playing as well as of late. Syracuse is a large underdog here, but has won three of their last five games and covered in four of their last five. They are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and have overall been decent at covering on the road, with an 8-5-2 ATS mark away from home.

SMU is 4-5-1 ATS over their last 10, and have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They have also lost three of five SU, so they have not been playing very well as of late in any sense. So, now they are laying a massive spread here of -8?

I think there is a reason for that, and I backed the Mustangs at -8 on Fanduel for -120.

Oklahoma +3.5 vs. Georgia (-105, MGM)

Both of these teams have been covering machines as of late, so something has got to give. They have each covered in five straight games, but the difference comes with their straight-up record. Oklahoma is just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games, and have been horrendous on the road, with a 2-7 SU record. This is likely to make a lot of people take Georgia here, plus they get the advantage of being a higher-seed, which is always desirable for recreational money.

The Bulldogs have also won four straight games, which again. is something that many people are going to love seeing.

This game should be very close, and because of that, I am going to take the +3.5 with the Sooners at a good price of only -105 at BetMGM.

This article will be updated throughout the day with more picks.