March Madness Betting Guide for Thursday, March 20: Best Bets & Predictions

Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner celebrates after scoring a basket

Let the MADNESS begin...

Creighton +3 vs. Louisville (-110, Bet365)

This number has been bouncing around back and forth between 2.5 and 3, so grab it at 3 if you can. I see one available at Caesars as I am writing this for -105, so even better odds than I got last night.

Nobody seems to be giving the Blue Jays much of a chance here, with nearly 70% of the bets heading to the Cardinals. That could stem from how Creighton looked the last time they saw the floor, getting destroyed 82-66 at the hands of St. John's in the Big East Championship game. Over their last 10 games, they are also just 6-4 straight up, and 4-6 ATS as well in that stretch. The Blue Jays have been valuable as an underdog, however, with a 7-3 ATS record when they are getting points. Add that to their 9-4 ATS record when they are playing away from home (this is a neutral court game), and they seem to get up for games just like this.

People are also backing Louisville simply because they are the higher seed with a better overall record. The Cardinals finished with a very impressive 27-7 SU record, and have also won nine of their last 10 games outright. The only loss came in their last game, a decisive 73-62 L to Duke in the ACC Championship game. In terms of the spread, the two teams are pretty similar. Louisville is 20-14 ATS overall, and 6-4 ATS over their last 10 games. As a favorite, the Cardinals went 14-11 ATS this season.

This should be a close game between two very even teams. However, I like Creighton to cover the +3 and probably win the game outright. Louisville's competition in the ACC was far worse than the gauntlet of the Big East that the Blue Jays had to deal with. To me, they are the more battle-tested squad, and I think they will be ready to fire away in this one.

Purdue -7 vs. High Point (-123, DraftKings) (2 Units)

When I first was looking at the matchups for the tournament, I noted that High Point instantly stood out as a team that would be an upset pick. After the Boilermakers got whipped by Michigan in the Big-10 title game 86-68, everyone was going to fade the crap out of them in the first round. When you combine that with their history of getting ousted early in the tournament under head coach Matt Painter, High Point was a given here to generate a ton of attention.

I am going the opposite way after this line shot down like a meteor crashing to Earth, falling from +10 to +7 within days. I think that has gone too far, and I bet them for a -123 price on DraftKings. Looking at the board now, it appears many felt the same way, as the best number available is now -7.5 at -120 on FanDuel. Most places at at -8 or even -8.5 now.

I played this one for two units, as trendy March Madness underdogs typically don't perform very well. Yes, High Point is 29-5 this season and has won 10 straight games, while also going 7-3 ATS in that stretch. Purdue is 4-6 SU and ATS in their last 10. There are plenty of reasons to like the Panthers, and most do, as they are the most bet team of the entire day at BetMGM.

Houston -28 vs. Southern Illinois Edwardsville (-110, Caesars)

The total for this game is an unreal 126.5, one of the lowest totals you will ever see in a college basketball game. The spread is 28 in a game with a total that low, which should tell you all you need to know about how well the oddsmakers think that SIUE is going to perform in this game. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country, playing with a relentless effort on that side of the ball. It is just one of the reasons that I bet them at +650 to win the whole thing this year.

Many are going to want to take the points with a 22-11 team catching +28 in a game with 126 projected points. That is understandable, but I am going in the opposite direction. Personally, I think this is going to be a total ass-whooping by the Cougars in red. They have won 10 straight games coming into this one with a 30-4 overall record, while also enjoying a modest 18-16 ATS record on the year. While SIUE is 18-12-1 ATS, and has won seven of their last 10 games, the buck stops here.

I'm laying it with Houston at -28, which I played on Caesars for -110. That is still available as I type this.

Auburn -19 (1H) vs. Alabama State (-115, MGM)

The Tigers have lost three of their last four games coming into the tournament, and have played poorly enough that some people didn't think they deserved the No. 1 seed after their recent play. That has made Alabama State a popular spread play at a massive +32.5. I think they reassert their dominance here and lay the hammer down early on the Hornets, which is why I am not taking them for the entire game.

Many times, after the No. 1 seed gets up early on these No. 16 squads, they take the foot off the pedal and get starters more rest for the next contest. This often allows the low seed to potentially backdoor the spread, getting within the number as the game comes to a close. Instead of sweating that out, I know the Tigers will be playing their starters the entire first half of the game. The Hornets will be having nightmares with the matchup advantages that Auburn is going to possess here.

I got this at BetMGM for -115. You can actually get it at Bovada now for -110, while everywhere else has moved to -19.5 or even -20.5.

VCU +3 vs. BYU (-115, Bovada)

The Mormons have been pretty lucky this season in my opinion, much like their football team was this past year. They have been excellent at covering spreads, with a 20-13 ATS record on the season, and 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. They have won nine of those last 10 outright while going 16-10 ATS as a favorite this season. Don't get me wrong, they are a good team, but Houston exposed them in their last game, ripping them 74-54.

VCU has the weapons to go toe-to-toe with BYU on the offensive end, and I like their defense more than the Mormons. They won the Atlantic-10 championship with a 68-63 victory over George Mason and didn't allow more than those 63 points in a game throughout the entire conference tournament. They were also 20-13 ATS this season, although just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 while winning nine straight up.

I think the Rams get the job done here and upset the Mormons, and I bet them at +3 for -115 on Bovada last night. Unfortunately, it looks like the +3 is gone, but you can get +2.5 for -105 at several places, or pay up alternate to get the 3. Personally, I think they win the game outright.

Wofford +19.5 vs. Tennessee (-112, BetRivers)

This is one of the longer shots of the day, but I actually think Wofford has a decent chance to win outright. I have had my doubts about Tennessee all season long, and they have done very little to quash those over their final games before the tournament. In their last 10 games, they went 3-7 ATS while finishing 18-16 ATS overall. Simply put, I find it difficult to lay nearly 20 points with them, and they have had issues at times scoring baskets. If they have another long drought in this game, that could really get them in trouble.

Wofford is 17-17 ATS on the season, but they finished on a high note, covering six of their last 10 games. They won the Southern Conference championship by winning and covering in three straight before making the tournament. The Vol's defense is elite, but the Terriers have been excellent on the boards. If they can get some second chances and make timely shots, while also slowing down Tennessee's offense, they have a chance.

I bet Wofford at +19.5 on BetRivers for -112. That number isn't available anymore, but there are +18.5s everywhere. FanDuel has one at -102, the cheapest price I can see.

Kansas -4.5 vs. Arkansas (-110, FanDuel)

I'd love to know who is betting on Kansas in this game. This is perhaps the weakest Jayhawks team that Bill Self has coached in his tenure with the school, finishing 21-12 SU and 5-5 SU in their last 10 games. The last time we saw them, they got whipped 88-77 at the hands of Arizona in the Big 12 tournament. They also have been bad at covering this season, going 14-18-1 ATS overall and just 4-6 ATS in their last 10. Who is going to want to bet them laying -4.5 points?

Arkansas went 20-13 SU this season, but they have been better lately than Kansas. The Razorbacks have won and covered in six of their last 10 games, and with John Calipari coaching them, they will have a lot of people on their side. They also were 8-7 ATS as an underdog, while the Jayhawks were just 12-14-1 ATS as a favorite.

I think Kansas gets a big win, as the expectation is that they get bounced quickly due to their failure to live up to the hype this year. This is a good spot for them to come out and show that they aren't dead in the water. I bet them -4.5 at FanDuel for -110. It is now -112, not much of a difference.

Texas A&M -7 vs. Yale (-105, Caesars)

The Bulldogs are going to be one of the most popular plays of the day, as they were covering machines during the season, with a 17-10-1 ATS record overall. They were also 8-6-1 ATS away from home. However, they were only 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. Yale still managed to win nine of their last 10 games outright, so they are hot coming in, especially off of that 90-84 win in the Ivy League championship over Cornell.

Texas A&M has lost and failed to cover in three of their last five games, and people know that. Even though they are 17-13-2 ATS on the season, it is always "what have you done for me lately" around these parts. Plus, losing to Texas in their last game 94-89, a team that didn't even make the tournament, will leave a bad taste in many mouths.

Because of this, I think the Aggies come out and take it to Yale, a trendy underdog. I bet them at -7 for -105 on Caesars, which is still available right now.

Missouri -6 vs. Drake (-110, Caesars) (2 Units)

Drake reminds me a ton of High Point in this matchup. Everyone and their brother are picking them to upset the Tigers tonight. In fact, they are one of the most bet teams of the entire day at BetMGM, which is trouble for people with money on them. Drake has won nine of their last 10 games and finished their season with an unreal 30-3 record. In six games as an underdog this season, they won every one of those games outright, which is very impressive. They were 17-13-1 ATS overall, and 9-4 ATS on the road.

Missouri has been a wagon for us all season, but lately, they have hit a bump. They are just 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10 games, and have lost and failed to cover in four of their last five. They are seen as a team to fade with their recent play, but I still believe in them. This is an incredibly talented team, and I think they have something to prove.

I bet Missouri -6 on Caesars at -110 odds for two units, which you can get now for -105 odds, even better.

UNCW +15.5 vs. Texas Tech (-115, FanDuel)

This is also a very real upset spot, where the Seahawks could get a huge victory over a somewhat overrated Red Raiders squad. Texas Tech is just 17-16 ATS on the year and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. They have given me some serious questions on defense, ranked 37th on KenPom on that side of the ball. That is easily the worst number of any top-3 seed in the tournament. I firmly believe that you need a relentless defense in order to make a run, and they don't have that, not even close.

UNCW doesn't have a good defense either, but they do have a top-100 offense that can give that Red Raiders defense some issues. They went 20-12 ATS overall this season, 8-5 ATS on the road, and 4-1 ATS as an underdog. This is a situation they have thrived in this season, and catching +15.5 against that defense is very intriguing.

I bet UNCW at +15.5 for -115 on FanDuel. I also sprinkled them on the moneyline at +950 to win the game outright for some baby peanuts of a quarter unit. You can get +15.5 for -110 at many different books right now.